The time the president of the republic of Kenya will send his troops to South Sudan will mark a new change in relationship between Kenya and her closest ally Uganda. Both countries have been struggling to flex their muscles in East Africa and this rivalry between them have shown some loose ends which I think will spill over-board if they meet in battle field again.
The game of ‘Who is Mighty’ started when Kenyan troops crossed into Somalia to secure those regions that were seen as a threat to Kenya’s national security.
Kenya’s First Win
Ugandan Defense forces which had staged a buffer zone in the war-torn country were not ready for this change. The Ugandan Army General even termed Kenya’s incursion in Somalia as ‘failed move.’ But they were surprise to see Al-Shabaab go down on Kenyan Defense Forces.
Kenya scored huge against her close rival. However, the game of wits has now shifted to another country which is close to Kenya even more that how it is for Uganda.
If you remember very well, the deal of South Sudan’s separation from Sudan was signed in Kenya –even the flag of their country has big likeness to that of Kenya’s. But when the conflicts started in this newest country in Africa, Uganda was the first Nation to send its troops as peace keeping forces in South Sudan. Now, do not ask me reasons why.
The Migingo Factor
If we look back, we find that Uganda has been touching on Kenya’s wounds for a while, but since our presidents are clever enough not to engage in military action against its neighbor, nothing big has been done. The demarcation of the boundary between Kenya and Uganda to determine the real owners of Migingo Island was staled when Ugandan side pulled out citing inaccuracy of the tools that were being used. It takes a third eye to see the reality: in my view, this was not what the neighbor expected and thus a waste of time.
This is a delicate case that the president should think twice before making a military move in S. Sudan because, someone would take this advantage to revenge on what he lost in Somalia.
We now know that Uganda is on the front line to oust the rebels which are holding key towns in S. Sudan. If they become successful in neutralizing the threat, they will take fist credit in their effort to quell violence in its neighbors. Any threat to loosing this chance will not be taken lightly.
I what I see, if Kenya Defense Forces cross the border to S. Sudan to fight alongside the government forces and their ally neighbor, the success of eliminating the rebels will be shared equally, and this will not go well with the pioneers in peace keeping in that Eastern Africa state. This might result in friendly fires against Kenya Army hence creating enmity between the two ‘friends’.
Okay, I welcome every kind of criticism…