I have been studying political trends in Kenya, following closely as aspirants use their time and resources in quest for support. I wish to differ with most Kenyans who support Amani coalition presidential candidate in his bid for the top seat. I have my reason to believe he is running on someone’s promise.
Even though he has publicly declared he is no one’s pawn, he still has long strings attached on his arms, mouth and mind. This is not the first time for something like this to happen; we had such like political game in 2007 when Orange Democratic Movement Kenya (ODM-K) presidential candidate took the lead role in political hypocrisy that later ended up in bloodshed.
First is his campaign strategy. Being a presidential candidate, an aspirant is expected to travel all over Kenya; more so, in regions he has little influence. Contrary to people’s expectations, Mr. Mudavadi spends much of his time in Western Kenya –a region he enjoys about 50% of support.
Secondly, his choice for a running mate raises eyebrows. It is rather absurd to nominate someone based on his background. The only reason for choosing Eugine Wamalwa as his running mate could be to gain more influence in Bungoma County – a densely populated region in Western Kenya-, other than his policies for Kenya.
Further more, the region was once an ODM stronghold, but it is going to be a battle ground between Amani and CORD alliances coming March 4th general election. By dividing western votes, he knows that a third party alliance would have high chances of closing in the gap and hence nothing to lose.
According to recent opinion polls released by Infotrak, he comes third in presidential bid ranking; this is the best position for any kingmaker- having the power to decide who will be the next Kenya’s president.
Could he be on Jubilee Alliance payroll? By now we have no idea, but this political jig-saw puzzle will be solved soon –just after March 4th. I hope we would not be surprised to find him in public office if the plan works as expected.
If my judgment is right, the biggest loss goes to CORD alliance. Despite the fact that Raila Odinga was endorsed by Western Kenya elders as the favorite candidate, he has a mountain to climb to attain the kind of support he once received in 2007.